Special Report on The COVID-19 Epidemic Forecasts (Issue 2)
HONG KONG and SHANGHAI, April 8, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China, Ltd. (hereafter "Ping An", the "Company" or the "Group", HKEX: 02318; SSE: 601318) today published a second report on The COVID-19 Epidemic Forecasts by Ping An Smart City Research Institute, Ping An Macroeconomic Research Institute and Ping An Healthtech Research Institute.
Overview (View full report)
1. The epidemic shows a three-wave global spreading trend. The cumulative number of confirmed cases globally has exceeded 1 million. It is estimated that the cumulative number of confirmed cases will exceed 2 million around Apr. 15. As of 12 p.m. China Standard Time on Apr. 4, there have been more than 1 million confirmed cases globally. It is expected that this current wave of infection, mainly in Europe and the U.S., will reach a peak of new confirmed cases by Apr. 15. The cumulative number of confirmed cases will exceed 2 million around Apr. 15. The first wave of infections occurred in China, the second wave is dominated by developed countries in Europe and North America, and the third wave is expected to occur in densely populated developing countries in Asia, Africa and South America.
2. Second wave: The number of newly confirmed cases in major European countries began to decline at the end of March, in line with our Mar. 20 prediction. We predicted that major European countries and Iran would reach the peak of daily new confirmed cases around the end of March. Newly confirmed cases in Italy peaked on Mar. 22, Spain on Mar. 27, Germany on Mar. 28, Iran on Mar. 31, and France on Apr. 1. The peaks of new confirmed cases in Italy, Spain, and Germany were in line with our predictions on Mar. 20 and the peaks in Iran and France were two days later than predicted.
3. Second wave: The arrival of the peak of new confirmed cases in the U.S. will be in mid-April, later than originally predicted. The main reason is the U.S. has had fewer tests than some European countries during the same period, but is showing a higher test-positive rate. The U.S. added 34,168 new cases for a record high on Apr. 5, and the peak of new confirmed cases is still to come. The main reasons are: 1) Although the cumulative number of tests per million of population in the U.S. has increased from 47 to 4,933 since the implementation of containment measures, the test volume is still about 50% lower than that of European countries and South Korea during the same period, i.e. Italy at 10,870 per million, Germany at 10,962 and South Korea at 8,875; and 2) The eight U.S. states with the most severe epidemics have a test-positive rate of more than 20%. New York and New Jersey were 40.7% and 45.6% respectively, higher than Italy's 18.6% and Germany's 10.8%. Also, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in these eight states exceeds 200,000. Based on our analysis, we now expect the peak of new confirmed cases in the U.S. to occur between Apr. 9 and Apr. 15. The peak of new confirmed cases may reach 39,000 to 60,000, and the final cumulative confirmed cases in mid-May may reach 870,000 to 1.65 million.
4. Second wave: The new confirmed cases in the U.K., Turkey, and Canada are expected to start to decline around mid-April. The number of new confirmed cases in these three countries have been growing rapidly recently. According to the current trend, the three countries will reach the peak of new confirmed cases around Apr. 15. Among them, Turkey and Canada belong to the Medium rate infection scenario (estimated infection rate is 0.05% to 0.2% of the total population), and the U.K. belongs to the Higher infection rate scenario (estimated infection rate is 0.2% of the total population). It is estimated that the peak of new confirmed cases will arrive between Apr. 8 to Apr.12 for Canada, Apr. 9 to Apr. 13 for the U.K. and Apr. 13 to Apr. 17 for Turkey. The cumulative confirmed cases in mid-May is expected to be: 130,000 to 180,000 in the U.K., 110,000 to 150,000 in Turkey, and 35,000 to 50,000 in Canada.
5. Third wave: The epicenters of outbreak are predicted to be developing countries in Asia, South America and Africa, especially India, Indonesia and Brazil. India, Indonesia, and Brazil have populations of 1.38 billion, 270 million, and 210 million, respectively, making them the most populous countries other than China and the U.S.. At present, the testing volume per million population in the three countries is only 50 in India, 23 in Indonesia and 215 in Brazil, far lower than the volumes in Europe and the U.S.. India's test-positive rate is less than 10% of the average of other countries. Assuming that the test-positive rate in India reaches the level of Europe and the U.S., the current number of infections in India may actually be 220,000.
In Africa, the number of confirmed cases is currently only 9,064. However, considering that Africa accounts for one-sixth of the world's population and has relatively low levels of medical resources, it is also a likely epicenter of outbreak for the third wave.
6. The ratio of confirmed cases in a seven-day period to the number of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds in a country significantly affects the fatality rate. Since about 20% of patients diagnosed with COVID-19 will develop into severe cases. The level of confirmed cases compared to the number of ICU beds is an important ratio. A low ratio of 1 or below indicates there may be sufficient ICU beds for the number of severe cases implied by the level of confirmed cases in the population. A higher ratio indicates there may not be enough ICU beds for the number of expected severe cases.
1) A low ratio of confirmed cases to the number of ICU beds would likely result in fatality rates of 0.9% to 2%. For example, the ratio of the peak confirmed cases in a seven-day period to the number of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds in China (excluding Hubei) is 0.08 and South Korea is 0.43.
2) A moderately high ratio would likely result in fatality rates of 2% to 4%. In Germany, the ratio of the peak confirmed cases in a seven-day period to the number of ICU beds is 1.7.
3) A high ratio would likely result in fatality rates of 4% to 10%. In Iran, the ratio of the peak confirmed cases in a seven-day period to the number of ICU beds is 4.4, and the U.S. is above 2.7.
4) A very high ratio would likely result in fatality rates of more than 10%. The ratio of the peak confirmed cases in a seven-day period to the number of ICU beds in Italy is 5.9, Spain is 12.8, and France is 6.6.
About Ping An Group
Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China, Ltd. ("Ping An") is a world-leading technology-powered retail financial services group. With over 200 million retail customers and 516 million Internet users, Ping An is one of the largest financial services companies in the world.
Ping An has two over-arching strategies, "pan financial assets" and "pan health care", which focus on the provision of financial and healthcare services through our integrated financial services platform and our five ecosystems of financial services, health care, auto services, real estate services and smart city services. Our "finance + technology" and "finance + ecosystems" strategies aim to provide customers and internet users with innovative and simple products and services using technology. As China's first joint stock insurance company, Ping An Group is committed to upholding the highest standards of corporate reporting and corporate governance. The Company is listed on the stock exchanges in Hong Kong and Shanghai.
In 2019, Ping An ranked 7th in the Forbes Global 2000 list and 29th on the Fortune Global 500 list. Ping An also ranked 40th in the 2019 WPP Millward Brown BrandZ™ Top 100 Most Valuable Global Brands list. For more information, please visit www.pingan.cn.
This research report is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Other than certain reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are published at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgment.
SOURCE Ping An Insurance Group Ltd.